The first 10 years of SIP can feel like a scam

Summary: You invest every month, stay disciplined, cut back on holidays and impulse buys to keep that SIP alive, and after five, seven, even 10 years, the results hardly sparkle. Is there really light at the end of this tunnel, or are SIPs just another trap for middle-class India? Let's find out.

The other day, a friend of mine was visibly frustrated. "Yaar, I've been doing SIPs for five years, never missed a single month. But look at my portfolio. It's barely moved. Is this what discipline in investing looks like?"

I was ready with the usual gyaan: patience, long-term horizon, don't believe social media hype. But before I could say anything, he hit me with a sharper question: "Be honest. Do you actually know anyone who became a crorepati just through SIPs?"

That snapped my mouth shut.

Sure, I've seen SIP crorepati stories on YouTube, Insta reels, even in pink-paper interviews. But in my own circle? Not one. Zero.

So, instead of answering, I dodged. Changed the topic. But inside, that question kept buzzing like a mosquito in the dark.

What if he was right? What if SIPs are just another middle-class treadmill, keeping you moving, but never really letting you break the ceiling?

That night, I decided to stop scrolling and start calculating. And here's the thing: maths doesn't do drama. It just tells the truth.

The harsh truth of the first decade

Let's take a simple example. Suppose you start a ₹10,000 monthly SIP.

• In five years, you would have invested Rs 6 lakh. Your portfolio, assuming equity fund returns of 12 per cent annually, might be worth about Rs 8.11 lakh. That's just Rs 2.1 lakh more than your capital. Honestly, it feels underwhelming after all that effort. Not the stuff of Instagram reels.

(A side discussion with the reader: Sure, we can't look at SIP returns in absolute numbers. That would be wrong. After all, SIPs are monthly investments, not a one-time lumpsum. The only technically correct way to measure them is through XIRR. But here's the thing: if I tell a first-time investor that their SIP delivered, say, an XIRR of 12 per cent, the reaction is usually underwhelming. It doesn't sound great. So, for the sake of convenience, I want to explain SIP returns a little differently. Let's look at them in a slightly crude, back-of-the-envelope way, the kind most new investors would instinctively relate to: "I put in X every month, and today it has grown to Y.")

• In seven years, your Rs 8.4 lakh SIP contribution would have increased to Rs 13.19 lakh. Not bad, but not life-changing either, especially when you've been investing diligently, month after month, for seven long years.
• The 10-year mark is equally encouraging and frustrating. Because, by now, your Rs 12 lakh contribution might become Rs 23.2 lakh. Yes, that's almost double your total investment, a clear improvement over the five- and seven-year mark. But for someone who has stayed disciplined for an entire decade, the number can still feel underwhelming.

It's at this point that many investors throw up their hands and wonder: What's the point of all this effort?

And that's exactly why the first 10 years of SIPs often feel like a scam. You slog, you save, you sacrifice, and yet the numbers don't scream ‘wealthy’. You feel that even the more staid, low-risk, low-reward options like PPF (Public Provident Fund) or a bank FD would have been a better option.

The psychology of this frustration is deeper than it seems. Research shows that over 40 per cent of individual investors stop their equity investments within two years. By the 10-year mark, many more have exited, especially during volatile periods. In January 2025, when foreign institutional investors sold Indian equities aggressively (withdrawing Rs 87,374 crore in a single month), SIP account discontinuations spiked to over 61 lakh accounts. The fear of market downturns, combined with the slow-seeming gains of early years, creates a perfect storm for early exit.

Real numbers for real investors: What does a recent SIP look like today?

Consider this: A friend started a Rs 500 monthly SIP five years ago, in January 2020. By now, in January 2026, they've invested just Rs 30,000. Using the 12 per cent return assumption that holds across diverse equity fund categories, that investment has grown to approximately Rs 39,500-42,000. A modest gain? Yes. But here's the kicker: if they continue this same Rs 500 monthly SIP for the next 15 years, that Rs 30,000 base (now Rs 40,000) will grow into nearly Rs 2 crore by year 20.

Let's verify this with current market data. According to ValueResearchOnline's latest analysis from January 2025, a Rs 10,000 monthly SIP invested in value-oriented funds over the past 10 years turned into Rs 30-37 lakh. The variation depends on fund selection, but the 12 per cent average holds as a reasonable middle ground. This validates the projections: at year 10, you're at roughly 2x returns; at year 20, you're at 4–5x returns.

You can model your exact scenario using VRO's SIP calculator, which shows how changing your monthly amount, expected returns, or time horizon impacts your final corpus.

The patience case study: Why year 10 feels like the end (But it's just the beginning)

Let me tell you about Raj. He's a 45-year-old software engineer from Bangalore who started a Rs 50,000 monthly SIP in January 2015. For him, 2026 is a milestone year—it marks a full decade of disciplined investing.

• His investment: Rs 60 lakh over 10 years.
• His current corpus: Approximately Rs 80–85 lakh (assuming 12 per cent CAGR).
• His gain: Rs 20–25 lakh, or about 35 per cent returns over a decade.

By traditional standards, that's solid. Above inflation, above bank FDs, above most bonds. But Raj isn't happy. "I've sacrificed so much," he told me. "Declined family holidays, skipped lifestyle upgrades, and for what? Rs 80 lakh? I feel like I should be at Rs 1 crore by now."

I showed him the math.

If Raj continues his Rs 50,000 SIP for another 10 years (until he's 55), his corpus will nearly triple from Rs 85 lakh to approximately Rs 1.75–1.85 crores. Years 11–20 add roughly Rs 95–100 lakh—more than the entire first decade.

This is not hype. This is compounding at work.

But here's the psychological trap that catches most investors: Year 10 is a breaking point. It's when the early frustration hasn't fully transformed into visible wealth, and the temptation to stop and ‘lock-in gains’ feels strongest. In 2025, when markets corrected and FII selling accelerated, SIP discontinuations surged. Investors panicked, thinking the correction proved their scepticism right. They quit.

Those investors didn't know something critical: they were quitting five years too early. Market corrections are the friends of long-term SIP investors—they let you accumulate more units at lower prices, amplifying gains during recovery.

Why breaking an SIP at year 10 is the costliest decision

Let's talk numbers that might hurt a little.

Imagine two investors, both starting Rs 10,000 monthly SIPs today.

Investor A: Stops at year 10. Final corpus: Rs 23.2 lakh.

Investor B: Continues to year 20. Final corpus: Approximately Rs 100 lakh (or more, depending on market performance).

The difference? A staggering Rs 77 lakh.

That's the cost of impatience. Not in terms of missed returns, but in terms of actual wealth.

Yet, this happens to countless investors every year. The data is sobering. In early 2025, SIP account discontinuations reached levels not seen since the pandemic. Why? Because year 10 marks a psychological milestone. It feels like enough effort. The temptation to book profits or ‘take a break’ becomes overwhelming.

Here's a framework to avoid becoming part of that statistic:

Before stopping your SIP at any milestone year, ask yourself three questions:

1. Do I have a genuine financial emergency? (Loss of job, medical crisis, etc.) If not, there's almost no good reason to stop.
2. Am I stopping because I'm frustrated with slow growth? If yes, stop and read this section again. Years 11–20 are where the real wealth explosion happens.
3. Would I be devastated if my investment doubled after I stopped? If the answer is yes, then staying invested isn't just smart; it's psychologically necessary for your future peace of mind.

The point is this: breaking an SIP isn't just a financial decision. It's a psychological one. It's about choosing the ‘lock-in mindset’—where you demand wealth now—versus the ‘freedom mindset’—where you accept that true wealth comes to those who are patient enough to compound for decades.

But wait, here's where the magic begins

Compounding is like cricket in Test match format: boring at first, but if the match enters the fourth and fifth days on an even keel, it's a white-knuckle ride. And it's no different for SIP investors.

• Because in 15 years, your Rs 18 lakh SIP contribution grows to Rs 50.5 lakh, about three times your investment. Basically, your money more than doubles from Rs 23.2 lakh to Rs 50.5 lakh between Year 10 and Year 15.
• In 20 years, the story gets even better. Your Rs 24 lakh contribution grows into nearly Rs 1 crore, more than 4x your investment.

Notice the difference: the first 10 years increased your wealth to Rs 23.2 lakh, but the next 10 years added over Rs 75 lakh, all with the same monthly SIP and the same 12 per cent return. That's the real power of compounding.

• In 25 years, Rs 30 lakh becomes around Rs 1.9 crore, over 6x.
• In 30 years, your Rs 36 lakh investment explodes into Rs 3.52 crore, nearly 10x your contribution.

What makes this possible? It's not magic. It's mathematics. After year 10, you're not just earning returns on your contributions. You're earning returns on your returns. The interest earned in year eight earns more interest by year 15. This exponential curve is what separates the patient from the impatient.

Think of it this way: in the first 10 years, you're building the foundation. It feels slow because you're constantly adding new bricks (monthly contributions) while your existing bricks are still being shaped. But from year 11 onwards, the foundation is solid. Now, every brick you add multiplies across the entire structure. Growth accelerates.

This is why equity fund managers who have managed funds for over 15 years consistently deliver returns of 14–18 per cent—because they're tapping into this compounding power. And this is why Value Research’s study from January 2025 shows that Rs 10,000 monthly SIPs in quality value-oriented funds grew to Rs 30–37 lakh in just 10 years, with the trajectory suggesting Rs 80–100 lakh at the 20-year mark.

The role of market corrections (The unsung gift of SIPs)

Here's something counterintuitive: market corrections are gifts for SIP investors.

When the market falls 10–20 per cent (as it did multiple times in 2024–25), most investors panic. They see their NAVs dip and think they've lost money. But SIP investors are quietly buying more units at lower prices through their monthly contributions. This is called rupee cost averaging, and it's one of the most powerful wealth-building mechanisms in investing.

Consider this example:

• Month 1: NAV = Rs 100, you buy 100 units.
• Month 2–6: Market booms, NAV = Rs 120, you buy fewer units.
• Month 7: Market corrects, NAV = Rs 85, you buy 118 units (more than month 1).
• Month 8–12: Market recovers, NAV = Rs 110.

By staying invested through volatility, your average cost per unit comes down. When recovery happens, your gains are amplified. Those who stopped their SIPs during the correction? They never participated in the recovery.

Historical data consistently show this: investors who continued SIPs through the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 Covid crash reaped extraordinary gains during the subsequent recoveries. Those who stopped? They missed out on some of the strongest bull runs in market history.

The takeaway

Yes, the first 10 years of SIPs can test your patience. They can make you feel cheated, frustrated, or even foolish. But give them time, and they'll reward you in ways that the ‘get-rich-quick’ crowd on Instagram can't imagine.

In the world of investing, it's not about timing the market. It's about time in the market.

The numbers are there. The psychology is real. The choice is yours.

If you're at the 10-year mark right now and feeling frustrated, take a step back. Raj's situation shows that the breakthrough is just beginning. If you're earlier in your SIP journey—five years in, or even just starting—understand that your patience today will determine your freedom tomorrow.

So, the next time I meet my friend (the one who asked me if SIPs are a scam), I'll pass on this knowledge to him. In fact, I'll simply WhatsApp him this story's link with a rather corny caption: "Picture abhi baaki hai, mere dost."

And hopefully, he'll understand that the best investments are the ones you stick with, even—and especially—when they feel slow.

Thinking of starting or continuing your SIP journey?

Understanding the long-term power of SIPs is one thing. Choosing the right funds to invest in is another. At Value Research, we've built a comprehensive toolkit to help you invest smarter.

Explore these resources:

• Fund Selector: Browse our curated list of top-performing equity, hybrid, and debt mutual funds. Filter by your time horizon, risk appetite, and investment goals to find funds that have consistently delivered 10–20+ year returns.
• SIP Calculator: Model your exact SIP scenario. Enter your monthly investment amount, expected returns, and tenure to see your projected corpus at milestones (five, 10, 15, 20 years).
• Fund Rating Methodology: Understand how we rate and assess funds. Our transparent methodology helps you make informed choices based on long-term performance, volatility, and fund manager quality.
• Investing Podcast: Listen to our experts discuss wealth-building strategies, compounding principles, behavioural investing, and real investor stories. It's the perfect companion for your SIP journey.
• Free Investment E-books: Download practical guides on passive investing, financial goal setting, and decoding investing principles—all free.
• Best SIP Plans Analysis: Our detailed analysis of funds that have delivered consistently over different time horizons, with historical performance data and risk–return profiles.
• Understanding Step-up SIP: Learn how accelerating your SIP contributions can supercharge your wealth-building journey.
• Value Research Fund Advisor: Here, we’re genuinely invested in helping you build wealth, patiently and wisely. Our analysts study the market for you and handpick funds that match your risk profile and time horizon, so your SIP works harder, grows steadily and keeps you on track to your goals.

We believe that patience, discipline, and the right fund choices compound into extraordinary wealth. The first 10 years are about building foundations. The next 10 are about watching those foundations multiply. And beyond that? You'll be in a position where your money works harder than you ever did.

The picture isn't just ‘coming’. It's already in motion.

This article was originally published on August 24, 2025, and last updated on January 09, 2026.