The illusion of certainty

Summary: Investing is often presented as a science of precise forecasts, but much of the future remains unknowable even to experts. This story argues that successful investing is less about predicting outcomes with certainty and more about judging whether a business is strong enough to withstand uncertainty when the unexpected inevitably arrives.

Summary: Investing is often presented as a science of precise forecasts, but much of the future remains unknowable even to experts. This story argues that successful investing is less about predicting outcomes with certainty and more about judging whether a business is strong enough to withstand uncertainty when the unexpected inevitably arrives. One of the myths about professional equity analysts like us is that we know much more than investors like you. People imagine we have mapped every possible future, run every variable through spreadsheets and have ready answers for every stock move or macro development. Let me tell you a secret: we haven’t. In investing, nobody ever has, and nobody ever will. A lot of what matters most simply cannot be known with real confidence. Think about a few of the questions we all end  up asking: How

This article was originally published on June 01, 2026.