History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes

Summary: After two years of flat returns, this piece looks at 20 years of Nifty 500 TRI data and finds that weak two-year stretches were often followed by strong three-year returns. It argues that neither gloom nor exuberance lasts, and advises long-term investors to stay in diversified funds and stick to their asset allocation.

Summary: After two years of flat returns, this piece looks at 20 years of Nifty 500 TRI data and finds that weak two-year stretches were often followed by strong three-year returns. It argues that neither gloom nor exuberance lasts, and advises long-term investors to stay in diversified funds and stick to their asset allocation. Recent times have tested many investors. We all know the reasons. We attribute reasons to every event. Whatever the reasons, returns have been low or nonexistent over the last two years. The skies are still not clear. In fact, the clouds are darker, uncertainty is heightened and no one has a clue about portfolios’ near-term prospects. As they say, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. In our context, this means historical events rarely recur; yet, human behaviour and societal pressures create

This article was originally published on October 23, 2026.