Widely read:
Anand Kumar
Summary: After weeks of war headlines and market speculation, the strongest reader response wasn't to a forecast. It was to the absence of one. What the inbox revealed about investors right now is more interesting than any prediction could be.
The responses to Dhirendra Kumar’s latest Editor’s Note, The most useful answer is ‘I don’t know’ revealed something unusual. Readers were not looking for certainty. If anything, many seemed relieved that somebody was finally refusing to pretend certainty existed.
After weeks of war headlines, oil panic and market speculation, the strongest reaction was not to a forecast. It was to the absence of one.
That honesty struck a chord because many readers recognised the emotional trap Dhirendra Kumar described: the urge to believe that somewhere, someone must surely know what comes next. Instead, the column argued that the most useful response in uncertain times may simply be admitting the limits of prediction.
And judging by the inbox, readers understood exactly what that meant.
“I don’t know” felt more reassuring than certainty
Several readers said the column’s refusal to sound overconfident was precisely what made it credible.
Badami Ravi Kumar put it simply: “Honestly accepting ‘I don’t know’ is the best thing in uncertainty.”
Tungare Jayant echoed in more personal terms: “Anybody pretending to know what will happen tomorrow or next week or next month is fooling himself.”
For many readers, the honesty itself felt calming.
Sai Leela wrote that the transparency in the response helped her “remain peaceful and calm while waiting for this phase to pass.” Arindam Das, a retired banker with decades of experience abroad, said what stood out most was the clarity of tone: “When you don’t know, or are not sure, you state that too, but clearly.”
Others reflected on why such honesty feels rare in finance.
Raj Merchant contrasted the note with financial television channels that remain permanently bullish because they are “financed by brokers and real estate companies.” Jimish Bagadia, a dermatologist, compared the writing style to the rare patient who gives a doctor “just what he needs to know, without the extra noise.”
And some readers admitted that perhaps investors themselves struggle with uncertainty more than they realise.
Ashok Hemmige joked that when “the Oracle” says I don’t know, readers feel abandoned. “Fortunately,” he added, “we now hear that it’s not a doomsday forecast.
Readers searched for silver linings
What made this mailbag especially interesting was that many readers did not stop at fear. They immediately began looking for second-order effects, opportunities and structural shifts.
Anubhav Sarathy pointed toward what could become a massive rebuilding cycle in West Asia over the next decade. Rail infrastructure, alternative transport routes and energy diversification, he argued, may create opportunities for Indian companies and workers. “Hopefully, India Inc will participate and be beneficiaries.”
Sundaram Krishnan made a similar point. “Entire West Asia needs to be rebuilt,” he wrote. “These are rich countries with deep pockets.” Indian engineering and infrastructure firms, he felt, could benefit meaningfully from the reconstruction phase.
The most detailed response came from Sreedev, a marine pilot who has spent decades handling crude oil tankers at Indian ports. His note read almost like a field report from the global energy system itself.
He described how crude imports have already diversified rapidly from the Middle East towards Venezuela, Brazil, Nigeria and Angola. Tankers are travelling longer routes, costs are rising and inflationary pressure is inevitable. But he also argued that India is adapting faster than many investors realise.
“We don’t necessarily have to wait for infrastructure to be rebuilt in the Middle East for our immediate crude oil needs,” he wrote. “Alternatives are already in place.”
His conclusion was not optimistic in the euphoric sense. It was what he called “cautious optimism.” The pain may last longer than usual, but adaptation has already begun.
Other readers focused on diversification itself. Lakshminarayanan Pillai argued that this phase strengthens the case for greater exposure to South Asian and European markets. Rajesh Achuthan and Nandu Tetharwal wondered whether international ETFs and global diversification now deserve larger roles, especially for NRIs dealing with currency depreciation.
The old debate returned again: Do nothing, or do more?
The third major theme running through the responses was a familiar one. Is simplicity still enough?
Some readers doubled down on the classic Value Research approach.
Pannag Kamat thanked the column for “reminding us not to do much,” calling inactivity itself an important investing discipline. Veera V SKN wrote that investors who learn to observe their own behaviour through market ups and downs eventually develop “equanimity and simplicity” and become “boring and successful wealth creators.”
Nandkumar J strongly defended the idea of continuing SIPs during downturns, calling volatility “part of the stock market’s DNA.” He argued that phases like these are exactly when long-term investors should continue accumulating assets rather than searching for dramatic portfolio changes.
But others questioned whether the old playbook is sufficient for investors entering a very different phase of life.
Kalpakam Sridhar, now in their sixties after two decades of successful equity investing, admitted they no longer feel comfortable with a simple “buy and forget” approach. “I still believe in equity,” they wrote, “but I am more concerned with ensuring that my existing capital does not erode further.”
R Ramesh Kumar asked whether investors should now keep at least half their accumulated wealth in safer instruments like RBI bonds. Preeti Malhotra raised similar concerns about maintaining sufficient liquid and fixed-income allocations if markets take much longer to normalise.
And then there was the most uncomfortable response of all, from Karthikeyan Rajasekar, who questioned the very premise of the discussion. He expressed surprise at the “blind trust” readers place in well-known commentators and argued that stronger evidence and sources should accompany narratives that encourage caution.
That scepticism mattered because it reflected something deeper running beneath many of the responses: investors are not merely anxious about markets. They are anxious about whom to trust.
Perhaps that is why this particular column resonated so strongly. In a world overflowing with certainty, forecasts and instant explanations, readers seemed to value something surprisingly old-fashioned: intellectual honesty.
Not a crystal ball. Not a prediction. Just the willingness to say, clearly and calmly: I don’t know.
Credits
Raj Merchant, Anubhav Sarathy, Badami Ravi Kumar, Tungare Jayant, Sai Leela, Arindam Das, Jimish Bagadia, Ashok Hemmige, Sundaram Krishnan, Sreedev, Lakshminarayanan Pillai, Rajesh Achuthan, Nandu Tetharwal, Pannag Kamat, Veera V SKN, Nandkumar J, Kalpakam Sridhar, R Ramesh Kumar, Preeti Malhotra, Karthikeyan Rajasekar
Also read: When even the optimists pause
This article was originally published on May 26, 2026.
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