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HPCL delivered a strong set of numbers for the Q4 FY25 quarter. Net profit surged 18 per cent year-on-year to Rs 3,355 crore. Crude throughput and sales volumes were up. A healthy Rs 10.50 dividend was announced.
And yet, the stock slipped.
HPCL share price dropped 3.3 per cent to Rs 396.90 on Tuesday, May 6, just hours after the results were announced. Why did the market look the other way?
HPCL Q4 FY25 numbers at a glance
Here's a quick snapshot of HPCL's key numbers for Q4 FY25:
| Metric | Q4 FY25 | Q4 FY24 | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit | Rs 3,355 cr | Rs 2,842 cr | +18 per cent |
| Revenue | Rs 1.19 lakh cr | Rs 1.22 lakh cr | -2.7 per cent |
| Crude throughput | 6.74 MMT | 5.84 MMT | +15 per cent |
| GRM (FY avg) | $5.74/barrel | $9.08/barrel | -37 per cent |
What's pulling the stock down is the falling gross refining margin (GRM), which dropped from $9.08 to $5.74 per barrel. That's a big cut, and it spooked the Street.
Also, the company took a Rs 10,894 crore hit due to under-recoveries on LPG—costs that the government has partially reimbursed in the past but remain a sore point.
But what about the dividend?
Yes, there's a Rs 10.50 per share dividend on the table. That's solid. The record date is August 14, 2025.
Still, investors seem to be pricing in risks ahead—tight refining spreads, policy uncertainty on fuel pricing, and softer crude prices.
Value Research Online Ratings
Value Research Stock Rating gives HPCL an overall rating of 3 stars out of 5. The company's specific scores are as follows:
-
Quality Score: 3/10
-
Growth Score: 7/10
-
Valuation Score: 5/10
- Momentum Score: 4/10
The final word
HPCL has put up a good show operationally. But the market clearly isn't convinced. The sharp fall in refining margins and recurring under-recovery concerns are weighing on sentiment.
The Rs 10.50 per share dividend is attractive, but for now, the market seems to be focusing on what lies ahead. Unless refining spreads improve or policy clarity emerges on subsidies, HPCL share price could stay under pressure.
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Disclaimer: This story was created with the assistance of artificial intelligence and is intended for informational purposes only. Please take it with a pinch of salt and do your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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