Fund Update

Investing in times of war

Facts, figures and anecdotes to guide your investment action plan even as the action rages on the battlefield

Facts, figures and anecdotes to guide your investment action plan even as the action rages on the battlefield

Equity markets reacted sharply to the news of Russian President Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine. Understandably, investors worldwide were fear-struck. The sell-off that started in the Asian markets spilled over to India too. Sensex, the benchmark index in India, shed 2,084 points or 4.7 per cent on February 24, 2022. This was the fourth biggest daily fall of Sensex (by points) in the history of Sensex. Even though the Sensex rallied by 2.4 per cent the next day, it is by no means a fully discounted event. The full extent and the interplay of this Russia-Ukraine event and the broader global macroeconomic position (high inflation, supply chain issues, shortages, etc.) is not yet fully understood. The Indian equity and bond markets may witness increased selling by the foreign investors as they prefer to hold safer and more stable assets, like the US government bonds, during such times. Moreover, with oil prices on the boil and potential supply chain disruptions, inflation can become an even bigger concern. Putting things together, we may be in for some turbulent times ahead. So, what should investors do? Well, even though the future (as always) is uncertain, it's time to take some lessons from the past. Light at the end of the tunnel While investors' fears are understandable, remember that the markets bounce back every single time they are pushed into a corner. After annexing Crimea (a disputed peninsular region between Ukraine and Russia) with itself in 2014, Putin in an interview remarked, "If you compress the spring all the way to its limit, it will snap back hard. You must always remember this." Well, guess what, it applies to equity markets as well. The following graph depicts the top five Sensex falls in the past 15 years and the returns from there. In other words, these are the returns you would have made if you sta

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