Politics is undoubtedly going to dominate 2014 with the general elections scheduled to be completed by early-May. Till then, rhetorical cacophony will fill the air and posturing will dominate public discourse, seeking to drown attempts to dispassionately analyse the state of India's political economy. As representatives of various parties turn up the volume on their claims and counter-claims, strident efforts will be made to conceal aspects of the reality that do not suit sectional interests. Nevertheless, it will not be possible to fool the majority of voters in the world's largest democracy. However, what is not clear is whether the country's polity will fragment or consolidate. This correspondent for one, believes the former will take place. Why?
The Congress seems to be staring defeat in the face. Will the country's grand old party be able to hold on to even 100 seats in the 543-member lower house of Parliament from 206 at present? Party spokespersons acknowledge in private that it will not be possible for the fortunes of the Congress to revive in the few months that remain before the elections. Rather belatedly, realisation has dawned on the party's leaders that fast-rising food prices, persisting joblessness, brazen acts of corruption and poor governance have combined to erode whatever goodwill that remains for the party that has ruled the country for all but roughly thirteen years since 1947.
If there is one huge failure of the second United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government led by economist Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, it has been its inability to control inflation that has been led by high prices of protein-rich foods, including vegetables, fruits, dairy products, fish and poultry. A simple fact that needs reiteration. Never before in the history of independent India has the country witnessed double-digit food inflation for six years in succession. This, in turn, has widened inequalities of income and wealth in a society that was already sharply polarised between the rich and the poor and where middle classes comprising roughly a fourth of the population have emerged.
As the emergence of the Aam Admi Party in Delhi has shown, many of our political analysts and representatives of the two largest political parties, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, were in a complete state of denial in understanding the prevailing mood of disgust and despair among large sections of the electorate. Despite attempts to project the Chief Minister of Gujarat Narendra Modi as a future prime minister of India, the BJP too realises its limitations, notably the fact that the party is non-existent in at least 200 Lok Sabha constituencies in India, including those located in at least four large states: Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Kerala. Modi is unlikely to become the next Prime Minister unless the BJP on its own obtains close to 200 seats, which is quite a tall order.
His brilliant oratory skills and his strong belief in the virtues of Hindu nationalism notwithstanding, Modi too surely understands that Gujarat is not India. What works in one part of the country may be far from effective in what is arguably the most diverse nation-state on the planet. Speculating about India's political future is a hazardous exercise. It may be a bit of a cliche but a week is indeed a long time in politics. India's polity is far from bipolar, not even one dominated by two stable coalitions led by the two largest political parties, the Congress and the BJP. The two parties, minus their coalition partners or allies, together accounted for barely half the total votes polled in each of the last five general elections that have taken place since 1996.
As far as the economy is concerned, contrary to what official spokespersons claim, there is no indication that the worst is over. The state of the world economy too appears rather fragile and uncertain. Under the circumstances, the ruling regime will be torn apart by conflicting claims of the need to spend more on welfare schemes and attempts at fiscal consolidation. The likes of Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh will seek to step up outlays while the Prime Minister and Finance Minister P Chidambaram will want to contain the fiscal deficit by, among other things, slashing Plan outlays and allowing the prices of petroleum products to go up. The tensions between the Left and the Right within the Congress will result in the existing policy paralysis persisting.
This situation is likely to continue till the contours, character and complexion of the next government is known in May. And for all one anticipates, even thereafter, there may not be substantial changes that will occur. There is, however, no need for excessive despair or cynicism. As the performance of the AAP has demonstrated, the Indian polity has to necessarily become more transparent and those in positions of power and authority have to perforce become more accountable.
The new party has reclaimed an old tradition that had existed in India for decades and used to cut across party and ideological lines, namely, that it is indeed possible and feasible to fund political parties and election campaigns through small, voluntary donations from large numbers of people and not on slush funds obtained from a few wealthy cronies among corrupt businesspeople, bureaucrats and criminals. That's the good news for 2014.
This article was originally published on February 14, 2014.
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