The Index Investor

Judge equity by the decade, not the Diwali

One Samvat can halve the Nifty 50. Ten in a row have paid at least 7 per cent a year

One Samvat can halve the Nifty 50. Ten in a row have paid at least 7 per cent a yearAnand Kumar/AI-Generated Image

A single Diwali-to-Diwali year tells you very little about equity. Ten in a row tell you a lot. That is what twenty Samvats show, each a Hindu year running from one Diwali to the next, stacked one on another from Diwali 2005 to Diwali 2025.

The lesson is timely. NSE and BSE have announced that Muhurat trading, the special session that opens Samvat 2083, will start at 2:20 pm on Sunday, November 8, 2026. The Samvat it closes has been hard on large caps. The Nifty 50 is down 10 per cent so far, dividends included, on course for its weakest Samvat since the one that began at Diwali 2010.

Nobody can pick the right Diwali to start. Everyone can pick how many to stay.

This article was originally published on November 04, 2026.

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