When my client said no

Summary: What if every conversation, headline and market expert seems to point in the same direction? It can feel like the safest time to wait. But markets have a habit of rewarding investors when confidence is hardest to find. This piece examines that paradox.

Summary: What if every conversation, headline and market expert seems to point in the same direction? It can feel like the safest time to wait. But markets have a habit of rewarding investors when confidence is hardest to find. This piece examines that paradox. Last evening, a client pushed back on everything I said. Every data point, every argument for staying invested in Indian equities, he countered with bearishness gathered from other market participants. He was firm. He was, in my view, a victim of recency bias. He had committed to deploying a fixed monthly surplus into equities. Given crude price uncertainty from an ongoing conflict, we had only invested a portion of it. Things had shifted since we last spoke, and I had fresh data to share. I thought he’d find it encouraging. He did not. Over the past two years, Indian stock markets delivered muted returns compared to other markets, with a couple of visible risks priced in. A large outflow of foreign capital, combined with surging gold purchases, put pressure on the r

This article was originally published on July 20, 2026.