Why I was waiting for the market to fall. But not anymore.

Summary: Everyone says, “Wait for the crash.” But what if the crash barely ever comes? Since 2010, the Nifty 500 TRI has fallen over 5 per cent in a day just three times. If you’d been waiting for those moments, you’d have missed out on double-digit annual returns for years. This story breaks down the myth of ‘waiting for correction’ and why even smart investors end up outsmarted by time itself.

For the past six months, I’ve been sitting on my hands and twiddling my thumbs. Or as fund managers like to say, “keeping my powder dry”.

My grand plan was simple: wait patiently for the market to tumble, then swoop in like a financial eagle and buy everything on sale. Buy low, sell high. Easy as Sunday morning.

After all, every wise head on television has been muttering the same thing since 2022 (or thereabouts): “The market’s overheated.” Every second newsletter predicts doomsday for the market.

Each time, I would muster courage and keep investing through my SIPs. But alas, I am human, too. How long can one’s nerves hold? My patience reached expiry date four-five months back, and my brain said, “Enough! Let’s wait for the crash, then invest.”

But then last weekend happened. One random glance at the data poured a cold bucket of reality on my beautifully warm theory.

The rude awakening: Instances of the market falling over 5 per cent

Turns out, those dramatic, headline-grabbing crashes, where the stock market tumbles 5 per cent in a single day, are extremely rare.

Since 2010, excluding the Covid crash, the Nifty 500 TRI (a fair mirror of the Indian stock market) has fallen over 5 per cent in a day just thrice. Yes, three times in 15 years.

• August 21, 2015: - 6.7 per cent
• February 24, 2022: - 5 per cent
• June 4, 2024: - 6.7 per cent

That’s it. Three blood-red days in a decade-and-a-half. In that period, my phone has crashed more times than the market has.

The cost of waiting

If I had been waiting for the next ‘big fall’ since 2010, I’d have missed a market that quietly delivered 10 per cent annualised returns between January 1, 2010 and August 20, 2015.

If I waited again after that — from August 22, 2015 to February 23, 2022 — I’d have sacrificed another 12.3 per cent annualised. In other words, Rs 1 lakh sitting idle would have more than doubled if I’d just invested instead of waiting for my dream crash date. In fact, even if the market had fallen 5 per cent the next day, I’d still be better off investing early.

And in the most recent stretch — February 25, 2022 to June 3, 2024 — the Nifty 500 TRI grew a whopping 18.3 per cent annualised. That’s not a typo. Eighteen point three. While some of us were waiting for a correction, the market was busy compounding.

The 3 per cent illusion

Maybe you think, “Okay, fine, 5 per cent drops are rare. But surely, smaller 3 per cent dips are common?”

Sorry to disappoint. Since 2010, the Nifty 500 has fallen over 3 per cent in a day only 17 times. That’s roughly once a year.

Miss that day, and congratulations, you’re now waiting for another year.

That said, in the last few years, since 2021, there have been eight such sharp falls. But here’s the twist: between those scary down days, the market actually rose on most occasions, clocking gains anywhere between 3 and 27 per cent. Only twice out of those eight instances did it actually fall further.

So, if you’d been waiting on the sidelines for that ‘perfect’ 3 per cent dip to invest, odds are you would’ve missed out on much bigger gains.

The truth is, markets reward discipline, not drama.

My ‘smart’ strategy, outsmarted

So yes, I thought I was being clever. Turns out, I was just timing my regret.

Because markets, like seasoned poker players, exist to outsmart those who think they can outsmart them.

And that’s my biggest lesson: the longer you wait for the perfect dip, the more your opportunity costs compound.

Which is why I’m not waiting anymore. My powder’s been dry long enough. It’s time to put it into action.

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Because as the market’s shown time and again, waiting for the ‘perfect’ moment usually means missing the real ones.

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Also read: Waiting for perfect market dip? Not a great idea. Here's why

This article was originally published on October 28, 2025.