Letters to the Editor's Note

Dhirendra Kumar’s Editor’s Note, ‘Markets defy understanding’, published on May 17, 2025, compared investing to quantum physics—uncertain and often masked by an illusion of control. He urged humility, scepticism and building resilient portfolios.

The piece resonated with many readers, who shared thoughts on uncertainty, discipline and staying grounded.

As always, this section is dedicated to our readers whose thoughts enrich the conversation on long-term, thoughtful investing.

Summary

During a lecture at Yale University, physicist Ramamurti Shankar offered a remarkably honest take on quantum mechanics: “Richard Feynman... used to say, no one understands quantum mechanics.” Then came his punchline: “Right now, I’m the only one who doesn’t understand quantum mechanics. In about seven days, all of you will be unable to understand quantum mechanics.”

This self-deprecating wisdom resonates deeply with investing. Like quantum mechanics, financial markets often defy intuition and straightforward explanations.

Scroll through financial news, and you’ll encounter countless experts confidently explaining market moves. They sound plausible—until they contradict each other or change with new data.

What if we approached investing with the same honesty as Professor Shankar? What if we admitted markets are shaped by incomplete information and emotion?

A terror attack by Pakistan, and India’s strong response is not a black swan—at best, a light grey one.

Consider how pandemic-era predictions failed. These weren’t mere outliers—they exposed how hard it is to forecast in complex systems. Yet, the industry keeps selling certainty: fund managers promise outperformance, analysts find patterns and forecasters offer decimal-point GDP guesses.

A more honest approach? Design strategies that accept uncertainty: diversify across assets, minimise costs, know your risk tolerance and avoid concentration.

Great investors don’t rely on perfect foresight. They set robust processes and adapt. Often, avoiding big losses matters more than chasing gains.

The industry avoids this message—uncertainty doesn’t sell. But embracing it leads to better decisions.

Next time someone explains the market with certainty, recall Professor Shankar. Markets aren’t predictable. Better to build a resilient plan than pretend we can forecast the future.

What our readers say

It’s an excellent take on the dynamics. Please keep writing. Your weekly letters are eye-openers and thought-provoking. Thank you for your effort to educate people. - Raghunathan Iyer

Excellent! Even with my extremely limited experience, your advice resonates with me. Thanks a lot. - Srinivas Shenoy

I am very glad that today I found my own financial behaviour being commended by an expert like you. I am not an investor—just a normal retired professional from an engineering background. I have invested my life savings in mutual funds from the time I was in middle age. I always believed, in the light of my experience, that markets could never be predicted even by the best of experts. Uncertainty is certain! - Hari Prakash Mital

It’s the basic truth and character of the market. You have aptly mentioned that sellers sell things they themselves are not sure about. This not only happens in the financial market, it’s there in every market segment. The sooner the consumer/subscriber understands, the better he stands to benefit or save himself from mis-selling. Otherwise, he has to undergo the pain to understand. - K R S Iyer

This is one of the sanest thoughts I’ve read in recent times. My philosophy is simple: invest in products and sectors I understand, mostly for the long term, and bet value I am ready to lose. If I win, I pat myself; if I lose, I take that as a learning opportunity. - Dinesh Thakur

Very nice to hear from you. Truly said, the market is like a mad monkey—keeps on moving every second, but nobody can predict which direction. Keep remaining invested as per risk appetite and hope to get 15 per cent per year compounded returns after five years. Thanks for the brainstorming session. - Arvind Aggarwal

Set your own financial goals and start early in investment. Stay invested and harvest only when you need the cash. External factors are variable, and no one can give accurate predictions. Select the investment securities based on conviction and have the patience to stay invested in the rollercoaster journey. - Ramesh Sampath

Your analysis has been spot-on and impressive. It is well-written and drives home the point beautifully. Knowing limitations and accepting them is all too important—a fact ignored by the ignorant. Thanks. - Prof (Wg Cdr) Jasbir Jassi

Thanks for sharing excellent and comprehensive thoughts on the mind and market behaviour. - Akilandan Ramachandran

Many thanks for your insightful piece on the need to embrace market uncertainties. This is the dose of reality that many investors need. - Ashok

Also read: The knowledge inheritance

This article was originally published on June 20, 2025.