I first wrote about the Chinese virus on Value Research Online on February 12, 2020. At that point, the smart money was on China suffering more or less alone. Those who have taken a strong position of being great experts have a hard time admitting that we were not in a predictable situation. However, it is better to realise the unpleasant truth as early as possible: The Blackest Swan (February 12, 2020).
In the following columns over the months, this was the major theme which needed to be emphasised: No strategy needed (March 6, 2020). If you need to change your savings strategy in response to crises like COVID-19, then you are doing it wrong anyway.
The COVID crisis has only just begun and there's no point in guessing how long and deep the impact will be: Into the unknown (March 11, 2020).
The basic principles of savings and investment are not under lockdown. In fact, these are exactly the kind of situation where they would be most useful: Stick to the basics (March 25, 2020).
Is this the time to sit on your hands, or should you try to tweak your savings and investments? The answer is straightforward: To do or not to (May 4, 2020).
A session with Nassim Nicholas Taleb's vigorously unconventional views on the COVID crisis was quite an intellectual adventure: The wisdom of Taleb, covid edition (May 20, 2020).
Risk is a word that appears to have very different meanings depending on who's using it. This is especially true in COVID times: What's risky and what isn't (November 5, 2020).
Basic economic data loses some meaning in exceptional times. Don't pay any attention to the GDP numbers that are being trotted out around the world: Unreal GDP vs real data (August 21, 2020).
There will be many surprises ahead, and many of them will be negative surprises: Expecting the unexpected (November 23, 2020).
Going ahead..., well, I'll take a lesson from everything I have written above and desist from saying anything about what will happen going ahead.