Copper's upcoming crunch

Summary: Copper demand from EVs, renewables and AI infrastructure is accelerating, while mine supply remains structurally constrained. With inventories thin and project pipelines slow, a widening deficit could reshape global copper pricing over the next decade. ‘Ten million tonnes’ is a number that should matter most to commodity investors. That is the copper shortfall the world is set to face by 2040. It is roughly one-third of what we consume today. And this is not a worst-case forecast. The deficit is already embedded in commitments that have moved into law. Think electric vehicle mandates across Europe and China, renewable-energy targets binding over 100 countries and trillions of dollars’ worth of data-centre construction already breaking ground. ​Last year’s top commodity conviction was silver, supported by a 45-year base, an industrial demand shift and a supply squeeze decades in the making. This year, copper looks even more compelling because the world cannot substitute its way out of this one. Demand is effectively locked in. Supply is not. That gap is where the entire investment case begins. The physical market is flashing red The first warning comes from price behaviour that looks irrational until you understand what it signals. Physical copper has been trading at premiums of 20-40 per cent over futures contracts in major markets. Buyers are paying materially more for copper today than for copper delivered next month. ​In commodity markets, that gap usually means one thing: availability is tighter than the official numbers suggest. The market is seeing scarcity before the data fully reflects it. Global exchange inventories have recently climbed to one million tonnes, the highest level since 2003. That sounds reassuring until you run the math. One million tonnes equates to just 12 days of global consumption. Most industrial commodities maintain a buffer stock of 60 to 90 days. Copper is running on barely two weeks of supply. And this does not look like temporary

This article was originally published on March 01, 2026.