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Estimating Future NAV

Find out if a fund’s NAV be the same 5 years later as it is now if the Sensex is at the same level…

Assuming that I invest a lump sum amount in a fund in 2012 when the Sensex is at the 17,000 level and after 5 years if the Sensex is back at the 17,000 level, will the NAV in 2017 be the same as in 2012?
-Thomas Ninan

A very honest answer is that we don’t know. However, it’s very likely. The markets are unpredictable and the past 5 years have been very difficult. But if you look at the broad numbers, about 60 per cent of the funds have been able to beat the Sensex over the past 5 years. Hence, returns will depend on the markets and the kind of fund you’ve chosen. It might get disappointing if you get unlucky with both.



This article was originally published on June 15, 2012.

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