Thrive in grey: Is the market at the top or bottom?

There is a famous quote by the world's richest investor, Warren Buffett, "Be greedy when others are fearful; be fearful when others are greedy." The pertinent question is - Who are the 'others'? Answer - The 'others' are us. Drawing conclusions, giving judgments and explanations The reason why human beings find it difficult to operate in markets is because by nature we are deterministic rather than probabilistic. We want closures, we need explanations, we would like to judge, and we want certainty. However, stock markets are not amenable to judgements, closures, certainty, and determination. For example, in March 2020, when Covid struck us, stock markets during that time fell by about 30-35 per cent. People were locked up in their houses, and we quickly concluded that everything including investing is a futile exercise, and human beings are the next dinosaurs. There was a wave of pessimistic thinking that the vaccination to fight Covid would not be developed immediately as it would take at least 10 years to see the light of day. Therefore, it is better to pull out money from equity markets. As you can see, we are very quick to draw conclusions. By November 2020, equity markets started making new highs and by October 2021, the equity markets (Nifty 50) made an all-time high of 18,400. Conclusion in March 2020: Human beings are the next dinosaurs. Conclusion in October 2021: Human beings are invincible. The same is also the case with human relationships. For example, when long-standing friendships get broken, or a relationship goes sour, or a top employee quits the firm etc., we like to draw a closure, love to ruminate on it and ask ourselves, "Why did this happen to us?" But the reality is that there is no definite reason for such occurrences and situations. Another example of how we are engrossed in drawing conclusions, giving judgements and explanations can be understood through the case of 'business television'. If we follow business television, an entire empire has been built based on explanations. If markets have fallen by 2.5 per cent, someone is always there to give a coherent explanation as to why it fell by such a quantum. In fact, explanations are galore by every minute and hour of the stock markets. For instance, we will get an explanation as to why markets fell by 1.5 per cent at 11 am, why it further fell by 2.5 per cent at 12 pm, and why it closed down by 2.5 per cent by 3.30 pm. The next day again, there is a detai