Elections in India throw up surprises and armchair pundits (including myself) realise how they underestimate the sagacity of the ordinary voter, howsoever poor and illiterate she may be. What comes through is the ability of people to distinguish among candidates and the parties they represent, their canny skills in seeing through pre-poll claims and rhetoric and their maturity in rising above narrow considerations of caste and religion to favour those likely to provide better governance. These qualities of the proverbial aam admi, which have become hallmarks of the functioning of the world’s largest democracy, were revealed once again.
The media hyped the campaign of “heir-apparent” Rahul Gandhi in the run-up to the UP assembly elections, but Akhilesh Yadav emerged triumphant. He shunned the anti-computer, anti-English parochialism of his father, steered clear of the many criminals and musclemen who were part of previous SP regimes, did not display vindictiveness and focused on providing development. All worked in favour of the new “crown prince” of India’s most-populous province.
The sharp rise in voter turnout (from 46 per cent to around 60 per cent) was a clear signal that anti-incumbency sentiments were pronounced. Yet it would be myopic to write off the future of Mayawati of BSP, the only chief minister in UP’s history who completed a full term of five years. A mere 4.5 per cent shift in the vote share of the BSP to the SP translated into a loss of roughly 120 seats in the state assembly for the former and a gain for the latter.
This should wake up Mayawati. Her ambitions to become PM evaporated in 2009. Her decision to remain aloof from her constituents and administer the state through a clutch of subservient bureaucrats is hardly worthy of emulation. That she thought that her actions in building statues of Kanshi Ram, other dalit leaders and herself would be perceived by the electorate as expressions of empowering the underprivileged was naïve. Ego came in the way of political astuteness and the consequences are disastrous for a person who claims to be the country’s tallest leader of the socially downtrodden.
The outcome of the elections also signifies that India’s polity is far from becoming bipolar or even, dominated by two coalitions, one led by the INC and the other by the BJP. The country’s two largest political parties remain on the fringes in a state where one out of six Indians live. The compulsions of coalition politics will continue to play a crucial role in determining the trajectory of the country’s multi-party democracy. After all, the marginalisation of both the INC and the BJP in UP by the “children of the Ganga” (to borrow Mohan Guruswamy’s evocative expression) is an important reason why India entered a new era of coalition politics from 1996 onwards.
In Punjab, a state that had become accustomed to a “revolving door” see-saw syndrome over a period of nearly half a century in which one party or coalition replaced another every five years, voters ignored anti-incumbency sentiments to return the Shiromani Akali Dal (with the BJP in tow) to power. The factionalism within the Congress and the ineffectiveness of former chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh in building an effective political organisation in the state helped the incumbents.
The ruling UPA coalition and the Manmohan Singh government have emerged weaker. The government’s ability to undertake economic “reforms” (100% foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail, decontrolling diesel prices, liberalising the working of the pension sector) will have diminished. The PM’s attempts to initiate the kind of market-oriented policies he favours would be severely constrained, not by the political opposition but by the “allies” of the Congress in the UPA such as the Trinamool Congress and, more importantly, by sections within the Congress party itself.
For the government and the ruling coalition in New Delhi, a rough ride ahead is anticipated.
UP: Uttar Pradesh / SP: Samajwadi Party / BSP: Bahujan Samaj Party / INC: Indian National Congress / UPA: United Progressive Alliance / PM: Prime Minister
This article was originally published on April 06, 2012.
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