Politics tends to dominate economics in the short-run. The presentation of the Budget has had to be postponed on account of the decision of the Election Commission of India to conduct elections to the legislative assembly of Uttar Pradesh in seven phases ending on March 4. The outcome of the elections in the country’s most-populous province is expected to have a significant bearing on the future career trajectories of a number of important political leaders and on the performance of the government in New Delhi.
One out of every six Indians is located in UP. It is the world’s most populous sub-national entity. If it had been an independent country, it would have been the fifth largest in the world in terms of population after China, India, Indonesia, and the US. Brazil has fewer people than UP though its land area is 35x bigger. UP sends 80 out of the 543 members of the lower house of Parliament. Eight (out of 14) of India’s prime ministers have been from UP.
The results of the assembly will influence the political future of Rahul Gandhi; Mulalyam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh of the SP, who are trying very hard to regain lost ground; and Mayawati, the incumbent chief minister of the state who has been UP’s first chief minister in four decades to have completed a full term of five years.
Candidates belonging to the Congress and the SP are pitted against one another. The BSP has trained its guns on Rahul Gandhi. But the main political battle is between the BSP and the SP. Given the low 46 per cent voter turnout during the 2007 assembly elections and the fragmentation of the polity in UP, the performance of the country’s two largest political parties -Congress and the BJP, who are vying with each other for third and fourth position in the 403-member state assembly - could have a crucial bearing on government formation.
The Congress hopes anti-incumbency sentiments against Mayawati’s government will be sufficiently strong to enable the SP to form the new government in Lucknow with its support as well as the support of parties like Ajit Singh’s RSD.
Remember 2007? The BSP obtained a majority of seats in the assembly on its own, that is, 206, with a 30.4 per cent share of the vote; the SP won 97 seats with a 25.4 per cent vote share; the BJP won 51 seats with a vote share just under 17 per cent; while the Congress, with a 8.6 per cent vote share, has 22 MLAs in the outgoing assembly.
If the dreams being dreamt by Congress supporters become reality, the Manmohan Singh government in Delhi can hope to heave a huge sigh of relief as the UPA coalition will then be able to induct the SP with its 22 MPs into its fold. This, in turn, will make the federal government less vulnerable to the whims of maverick leaders like the West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee whose Trinamool Congress has 19 MPs in the UPA (and whose relations with the Congress in her home state is rather strained).
But the BSP will not be a pushover. Mayawati is fighting tooth and nail and touting her so-called achievements (improved law and order conditions and an annual rate of economic growth of 7%) to return to power. She hopes her intention to carve the state into four small ones in the interests of improving governance will work in her favour. She also thinks that the sacking of a number of ministers against whom allegations of corruption have been leveled will help improve her image as a no-nonsense administration. The bulk of the votes of those belonging to the scheduled castes are solidly behind her but she will need the support of other castes (including the Brahmins) and communities (notably, the Muslims) to hold on to power. Waiting in the wings is the BJP which hopes that it will share power with the BSP.
SP: Samajwadi Party / BSP: Bahujan Samaj Party / BJP: Bharatiya Janata Party / RSD: Rashtriya Lok Dal / UPA: United Progressive Alliance / MP: Member of Parliament
This article was originally published on February 04, 2012.
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