The art of elimination

A persistent myth in investing is that success requires an almost mystical ability to predict the future. The conventional wisdom suggests that to be a successful investor, you must possess the foresight to identify the next Apple or Infosys years before their ascent. But what if this approach fundamentally misunderstands how markets work? I recently encountered some fascinating insights from Samir Arora, a veteran of India's mutual fund industry. His perspective challenges conventional wisdom and aligns perfectly with what I've long advocated in this column: sometimes, the best investment strategy isn't about being brilliant - it's about being prudent. Suggested read: The problem of almost-good stocks Here's the reality that most investment gurus won't tell you: in any given year, about one-third of stocks perform exceptionally well, another third perform poorly, and the rest fall somewhere in the middle. This pattern holds true across markets, including our own. The challenge isn't finding the winners - there are plenty of them. The real chal