Is it possible for Vodafone Idea to ring in profits?

Vodafone Idea 's Laapataa profits have grabbed headlines for several years, and its future looks equally bleak. The subscriber count has followed a downward trajectory since FY20. Also, its liabilities have stood at a worrying Rs 2 lakh crore as of FY24. Yet, investor optimism remains unswayed. Its latest FPO, India's largest FPO to date, was subscribed more than six times. Even market experts contributed to the euphoria, with institutional oversubscription hovering at 19 times. So, are we—and Goldman Sachs, which valued the company's shares 75 per cent lower than its market price at Rs 2.5 per unit—missing a crucial piece of the puzzle? Is this telecom veteran capable of turning the tide and generating profits, and more importantly, creating wealth for investors? Let's find out. The possibility of profits Let's be straightforward: In all likelihood, profits will remain elusive for Vodafone Idea in the near future. However, we want to explore, quantitatively, if profits are within the realm of possibility. For that, we'll need to consider some optimistic assumptions. The subscriber count will not decline drastically. Between FY20-24, total subscribers fell around seven per cent annually. However, Vodafone's 4G subscribers surged five per cent annually in the same period. The downtrend in its subscriber count was primarily due to declining demand for its 2G services. Based on this, we have assumed that its overall subscriber count will not dip drastically in the near future. 2G subscribers will switch to 4G. It had around 213 million total subscr