Shadows and finding light

Summary: Crowds, charts and recent winners can create a powerful illusion of safety. This piece looks beyond last year’s returns to show how different assets really behave over full cycles—and why staying allocated, not chasing motion, is what quietly builds wealth over time. A few years ago, I visited Agra to see the Taj Mahal and was told I had to try petha (a sweet), especially from Panchi Petha. Walking the streets, I found dozens of shops with the same name, each claiming to be original. Locals gave conflicting advice, so I joined a queue. Nearly every shop had a line, yet no one seemed certain which was best. The crowd created a powerful illusion—a classic case of collective instinct, where motion and presence are mistaken for value. The petha was enjoyable, but the crowd’s confidence and shared anticipation stood out. I hadn’t checked the quality for myself; I’d subscribed to belief, not tasted dessert. It reminded me of the story of Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves. Ali Baba discovers a hidden treasure cave. Tempted by the newfound wealth, his brother rushes in, forgets the magic words Open Sesame, and gets trapped. Most say it’s a failure of cleverness, but really, it’s about mimicking the form, not the function. A door that opens once doesn’t promise to open again. That instinct repeats in the markets. We assume what worked for others will work again. But markets rarely reward the same hero twice in a row. The previous year&rsquo