JSW Steel Q4 FY25 earnings preview: What to expect

JSW Steel is set to announce its Q4 FY2025 results on May 23, 2025, and investors are eyeing a potential rebound after a volatile year. The company saw profits shrink through FY25 even as volumes hit new highs, and the upcoming results will reveal whether higher production and steady demand translated into improved revenue, EBITDA, and PAT in the final quarter. Below is a recap of JSW Steel’s performance over the last four quarters and expectations for Q4 FY25, including segment trends in exports and automotive steel. The stock's ratings on quality, growth, valuation, and momentum also provide insights for investors.

Recent Performance: Q4 FY24 to Q3 FY25

JSW Steel’s last four quarters have been marked by strong steel volumes but pressured profitability. Both standalone (India operations) and consolidated (including subsidiaries abroad) financials reflect the impact of fluctuating steel prices and costs.

• Q4 FY2024: Consolidated revenue was Rs 46,269 crore, nearly flat year-on-year. PAT fell sharply to Rs 1,332 crore. Operating EBITDA stood at Rs 6,124 crore with a margin of 13.2 per cent. Standalone PAT was about Rs 1,007 crore.
• Q1 FY2025: Revenue came in at Rs 42,943 crore, up 1.7 per cent YoY. PAT declined to Rs 867 crore. EBITDA was Rs 5,510 crore with a 12.8 per cent margin. Output was affected by maintenance shutdowns, with capacity utilisation at 87 per cent. Standalone PAT (~Rs 1,205 crore) was notably higher than consolidated profit.
• Q2 FY2025: The weakest quarter, with revenue dropping to Rs 39,684 crore (–11 per cent YoY) and PAT collapsing to Rs 404 crore. EBITDA was Rs 5,437 crore with a 13.7 per cent margin. Steel production rebounded to 6.77 million tonnes, though export volumes remained low due to global oversupply.
• Q3 FY2025: Revenue stabilised at Rs 41,378 crore (down ~1 per cent YoY). PAT was Rs 719 crore, nearly double the Q2 profit. Steel sales rose to 6.71 million tonnes, supported by robust demand from the auto and appliance sectors. EBITDA reached Rs 5,579 crore (13.5 per cent margin). Long steel demand grew 26 per cent YoY, though price pressure from cheap imports persisted.

Overall, FY25 has seen steady revenues but compressed margins. Consolidated PAT for 9M FY25 was sharply lower YoY, though Q3 showed sequential improvement. Steel production and sales volumes have grown consistently, setting the stage for a potentially better Q4.

Q4 FY25 Earnings Expectations

A solid quarter-on-quarter rebound is expected in Q4 FY25, aided by record production and improved operating metrics. However, year-on-year comparisons may still be mixed.

• Revenues: Expected around Rs 43,700 crore, about 5–6 per cent higher QoQ but 5.5 per cent lower YoY. This reflects higher volumes but softer steel prices. The company reported its highest-ever quarterly crude steel production at 7.63 million tonnes, up 9 per cent QoQ and 12 per cent YoY, with Indian operations accounting for 7.40 Mt at 93 per cent capacity utilisation.
• Profitability: EBITDA is projected at Rs 6,060 crore, roughly flat YoY but 9 per cent higher QoQ, implying a margin of ~14 per cent. PAT is estimated at Rs 1,590 crore, marking a 22 per cent YoY increase and nearly double the Q3 figure. This rebound is driven by volume growth and better cost efficiencies, although profits remain below the peaks seen in previous years.
• Segment Performance: Domestic automotive steel demand is expected to remain strong. Higher institutional sales and long steel demand supported volumes. Export volumes, previously scaled back, may have picked up slightly to help clear inventories, but full-year exports remain lower than historical levels due to global competition. Investors will look for commentary on trade protection measures to address import pressure.

In summary, Q4 FY25 is anticipated to show sequential improvement, with higher revenues and PAT compared to Q3, driven by volume growth and stable demand. Year-over-year results, however, may still reflect the full-year impact of cost inflation and import competition.

Stock Rating & Commentary

JSW Steel’s stock carries a moderate rating based on a combination of fundamental and market factors:

• Quality Score: 6/10 – Reflects moderate fundamental quality, including average profitability, debt, and governance metrics.
• Growth Score: 5/10 – Indicates average growth prospects due to the cyclical nature of earnings.
• Valuation Score: 4/10 – Suggests the stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals.
• Momentum Score: 7/10 – Denotes strong recent share price performance.

Overall Rating: 3/5 stars – The stock is rated as having average long-term investment attractiveness.

These scores suggest a mixed outlook. While the company has decent business quality and positive momentum, it faces modest growth and a relatively high valuation. The overall 3-star rating implies a balanced risk-reward profile, making JSW Steel a market-average pick. Investors should consider its long-term strengths, like scale and cost efficiencies, against short-term challenges, including volatile prices and import headwinds.

JSW Steel’s Q4 FY25 results and management commentary will be crucial in determining whether recent share price momentum is backed by fundamentals. A strong earnings beat, combined with clear guidance and trade protection measures, could strengthen investor confidence. Otherwise, the stock’s moderate rating may reflect justified caution.

For detailed financial information, visit our stock page- JSW Steel

Disclaimer: This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. While our digital writer has been trained to follow our editorial style, we recommend applying a critical eye while reading. Enjoy the story — and keep smiling with understanding!