A rain-fed economy

I had once written a piece titled 'Monsoons, India's Real Finance Minister', about the tremendous significance of rains. It was published under a different headline, but every year, as spring ends and day-time temperature begins to rise, I am reminded of how, even so many years after Independence, the quality and quantity of rainfall in a year remain among the most important factors for the economy. (This year of course the pandemic will be an even bigger factor, as it was last year. And so, the true impact maybe somewhat difficult to separate out and observe for laypeople.) As dinnertime conversations across the country turn to the much-romanticised arrival of the mangoes season, economy-watchers start tracking monsoon forecasts, for they are an important determinant of buying, selling, saving, investing and spending decisions. Every year, I hear a story or two reaffirming this dependence. A friend from school, who heads sales for an electronic-appliances giant, told me a couple of years ago about why he and his global bosses don't buy the 'India growth story': "How can you when all that sets apart a good year from a bad one for air-conditioner sales is a week or two's delay in

This article was originally published on May 20, 2021.