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When technical analysis fails

Tracking the collective ego can be more rewarding than following technical analysis

When technical analysis fails

The more sophisticated among us would understand the ego as the id (the self), but there are layers to that. There is a sub-conscious id and a conscious id (the self-awareness that humans are uniquely known to have). This self-image is very complex and hence very fragile. It is what sends a film star into depression when a film fails or prompts an old-timer corporate employee to die quickly after he retires or is fired. It builds up over time, is reinforced by repeated validation (as in the case of film stars) and gives you the crutch on which you live. It is why billionaires commit suicide when they are faced with sudden losses. Like the shattering of glass houses, it takes away more than just their livelihood; it takes away their identity. It doesn't really matter whether a Vijay Mallya or a Nirav Modi is actually sent to jail; their life is already finished. But going back to the evolution of the collective ego in agglomerations of people, it is possible to observe the building up of the collective ego thread by thread. The more complex the inter-relationships in an organisation, the more complex the (organisational) ego. At the highest level of complexity (the inter-connected human brain), it develops self-awareness. The more order a system has, the more it will need to protect itself, especially the underlying order. This is seen in complex organisations or even marketplaces. It is perhaps easy to make the point that a highly ordered human brain would have a complex, self-aware ego, or even that organisations have an instinct of self-preservation. But an awareness of the operation

This article was originally published on October 05, 2018.


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