The year, minus the noise

Summary: Year-end forecasts are everywhere, but they rarely help investors. This piece looks past predictions to a few telling signals and explains why, for ordinary savers, discipline and diversification still matter far more than foresight. This time of year, the financial media is flooded with predictions for the coming 12 months.  Where will the Sensex be? Which sectors will outperform? What will the rupee do? I’ve never found much use for these exercises, even though I sometimes get shepherded into participating. The predictions offer no special insight into the future, and their track records, if anyone bothered to check, would prove it. I find it more useful to observe the world as it stands and ask what these observations might mean for ordinary savers. So here’s what catches my attention as the year draws to a close. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on nearly $300 billion in cash. This is not a man who hoards cash because he lacks ideas or has lost his nerve. This is someone who has spent seven decades buying businesses when they’re attractively priced and waiting pati

This article was originally published on December 29, 2025.