Analyst's Diary: Tracking India's electric vehicle trailblazers

India's electric vehicle (EV) market is revving up for a bull run. With the market projected to grow at an impressive 66 per cent in 2024 alone, the industry size is on track to leap from Rs 74,000 crore ($8.8 billion) to a jaw-dropping Rs 8.4 lakh crore ($100 billion) by 2031. Thanks to government initiatives like FAME II and PLI (project-linked incentives) schemes, EV sales are expanding rapidly, especially in the two-wheeler segment. By 2030, the Indian government envisions that nearly one in three passenger vehicles rolling onto the roads will be electric. Consumer enthusiasm is driving demand. In FY24 alone, EV sales shot up 30 per cent in two-wheelers, 57 per cent in three-wheelers, and a striking 90 per cent in four-wheelers. Indian companies are strategically plugging into every aspect of this surging market, building a robust value chain that spans battery manufacturing, advanced battery chemicals, auto components, cutting-edge software, and recycling. Each segment represents a vital cog in this ecosystem, and the country's businesses are racing to stake their claims. This story breaks down the various stages of the EV value chain and spotlights some promising Indian players that are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of the electrifying transformation. Mining: Where it all begins At the heart of the EV industry lies the hunt for critical minerals. The US Geological Survey lists 50 such minerals as critical for clean energy technologies. Of these, lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and graphite are indispensable for lithium-ion battery (LIB) production, used widely in EVs. Mining and refining these minerals—predominantly controlled by a handful of nations—constitute the critical upstream segment of the EV value chain. Beneficiaries India remains a spectator in the global mining arena. Australia dominates lithium production, accounting for 47 per cent of the global output, while cobalt flows largely from the Democrati