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What will be the shape of the Indian economy over the next three years?

For individual investments, the economy doesn't matter as there can be great companies in a bad economy and bad companies in a great economy, advises Dhirendra Kumar

How do you evaluate the status of the Indian economy for the coming three years, given the setback in economic activities because of the pandemic?
- Hina Katira

I genuinely don't know what the state of the economy will be. But I would like to tilt towards optimism, as three years is a long period. Having said that, I don't know the scale of the setback for our economy. We know that companies are making less money, for some companies like airlines, cinema halls, etc., their operations are shut. Further, unexpectedly, many businesses, which shouldn't have been down, are disrupted for a variety of other reasons like disruptions in logistics, the absence of manpower, changing consumer preferences, etc.

All of these are a big shock or change for everybody. Thus, it's difficult to anticipate the scale of the setback. Having said that, I'm looking at the positive side of all these- many things have happened in this crisis, which make me think that we should be out of the woods within one to one-and-a-half years. Also, with all the steps being taken, every day we are moving to some direction. One thing, which has not been much talked about, is the big banking reform related to public sector banks, which guzzle up a lot of deposits in the country. As 10 public sector banks got merged or consolidated into four, they need to be reformed in their operational fronts in terms of setting up accountability and the government is all set to announce these significant things. So, the reforms of the real kind are very much underway and many things will start showing results in this two-three years' time frame. So, I am hopeful and confident that we will be a stronger, better, and more resilient economy in three years.

I would like to highlight that don't worry about the economy. Rather, you should focus on your specific investments because there are companies which will do exceedingly well despite the bad weather. Actually, there are companies which are doing well even now, as they have not been as impacted as expected. So, for specific individual investments, the economy doesn't matter because there will be great companies in a bad economy and there will be bad companies in a great economy as well. So, get focused.

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